March 18, 2024
They’re functioning as tripwires for curtailing China’s freedom of military action in any forthcoming cross-strait crisis and directly involving the US if that fails.
The Taiwanese “Defense Minister” confirmed on Thursday in response to media reports that US Army Special Forces are training his polity’s troops on the island of Kinmen just six miles from Mainland China. It was already provocative enough that former “President” Tsai Ing-wen revealed in October 2021 that American boots were within her self-proclaimed jurisdiction in a training capacity, but few could have imagined that they’d reach as far as Taiwan’s outermost island.
Back then, ties between the US and China were much more strained, but tensions began to abate somewhat since their leaders met on the sidelines of November’s APEC Summit in San Francisco last November. The intervening two years saw them work out a “new normal” in their relations, which was partially aimed at stabilizing the global economy after it risked being disrupted yet again by the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine that followed shortly after the pandemic finally ended.
All the while, China continued expanding its economic influence across the Global South in parallel with the US rounding up regional allies, particularly the AUKUS+ countries of Japan and the Philippines. Each knows that their “cold peace” might not last as long as they’d like, which is a credible concern considering the latest tensions between Beijing and Manila over the South China Sea. It’s therefore possible that a major crisis could explode by miscalculation and take both of them off guard.
China hasn’t yet diversified its foreign trade dependence on the Strait of Malacca to the point where it could withstand a prolonged American blockade of that chokepoint while the US has yet to kick its military-industrial complex into high gear like it would need to do in the years preceding that scenario. Neither is therefore ready for that, but it could still happen anyhow due to the way in which the sensitive military-strategic dynamics of their systemic competition are playing out in the Asia-Pacific right now.
The best-case scenario is that they defuse regional tensions through mutual compromises, but the political will isn’t present on America’s side, plus China doesn’t trust it. The Minsk precedent that was established after the former French and German leaders admitted that they never intended to respect those accords might have also convinced Beijing that America’s Asian allies would behave similarly. Nevertheless, the Sino-US superpower competition still followed unofficial “rules”, up until now that is.
The deployment of American special forces so close to the mainland ominously replicates the approach that America applied towards Russia vis-à-vis Ukraine whereby it oversaw NATO’s clandestine expansion into that foreign Soviet Republic which ultimately triggered Russia’s special operation in response. Just like it did with Russia back then, the US is now testing China’s patience as well, and it could end in a similarly large-scale proxy war in the worst-case scenario.
The slightest misstep on Taiwan’s part could reignite cross-strait hostilities even if only at a low intensity at first, in which case China might shell Kinmen on self-defense pretexts and thus activate the tripwire for directly involving the US in that crisis. The presence of American special forces on that island is therefore meant to deter China from reacting to potentially forthcoming Taiwanese provocations, which could take the form of drone, missile, or other unacceptable (possibly joint) bases there or elsewhere.
There’s no rational reason for the US to test China’s patience like this when they’re both already trying to maintain the “new normal” in their ties that was agreed upon last November. It’s a needless provocation that risks sparking a regional crisis that could abruptly destabilize the global economy, not to mention before either is ready to confidently react to this scenario as was earlier explained. The only cogent explanation is that anti-Chinese hawks are responsible for this recently confirmed deployment.
This policymaking faction might have felt that the US is wasting so much time futilely attempting to contain Russia in Europe that it’s “emboldened” China to “expand” its influence in Asia at America’s expense. The only way to correct their country’s grand strategic course, they might have reckoned, is to send special forces to Kinmen, leak the details to the press, then have the Taiwanese “Defense Minister” confirm it in order to artificially manufacture a supposedly “controlled escalation” with China.
The purpose behind doing so would be to pressure their anti-Russian rivals into accepting a “mutual compromise” on Ukraine in order to accelerate the US’ “Pivot (back) to Asia”, but this sequence of events is contingent on China reacting as fiercely to the Kinmen deployment as it did to Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. If its representatives spew fire and brimstone, which they’d be justified in doing after this egregious military provocation, then it could inadvertently reshape the New Cold War narrative to facilitate this.
At present, the US still officially remains committed to fighting Russia by proxy in Ukraine despite the Congressional deadlock over more aid to the latter, but a “controlled escalation” with China could sway the mood in the direction of cutting their losses in Eastern Europe so as to “Pivot (back) to Asia” pronto. This plot dangerously presupposes that any such escalation would be controllable, however, which can’t responsibly be taken for granted just like the US learned from Russia in February 2022.
Even so, there aren’t any credible indications that China is preparing a kinetic response to the US’ egregious military provocation in Kinmen, but the continued deployment of those special forces there (even if under the cover of “rotating” on a “non-permanent basis”) means that this will always be a risk. They’re functioning as tripwires for curtailing China’s freedom of military action in any forthcoming cross-strait crisis and directly involving the US if that fails, which is very dangerous and irresponsible.
Source: https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-us-is-testing-chinas-patience
Emma Olive 