October 4, 2023
The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 was the most widely known and discussed ‘near miss’ which the world had with a nuclear war in the 20th century. At its peaceful conclusion, several safeguard procedures, or as we now call them, “guard rails,” were put in place to ensure that the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union for control of human destiny would not suddenly escalate to a hot war. A “red line” telephone was set up to ensure that the heads of state could contact one another in case actions of one or the other side could be misconstrued as a nuclear attack. This was famously mocked in the anti-war movie Dr. Strangelove.
Decade by decade, during the last century other procedural safeguards came in the form of treaties on arms limitations and then on reduction of nuclear arsenals, with on-site inspections, all with the intent of raising trust between the two hostile and suspicious sides.
Nonetheless, there were several occasions when it was only the cool head of an officer with power to launch missiles, whether Russian or American, that prevented false radar readings on missile activity of the other side to result in a “preventive” strike, applying the principle of “use them or lose them” with respect to the arsenal under his control. That we made it through the 20th century unscathed may well be considered as “dumb luck” as they say in American English, or “miraculous,” as people with faith in God would say.
In this context, I contend that what happened in the U.S. Congress yesterday was an act of divine intervention to save us from ourselves. The thirty minutes warning time before an incoming ICBM hits or an hours long warning time before a nuclear armed bomber would reach target, as in the case of Dr Strangelove, is a luxury that no longer exists. The existence of nuclear armed intermediate range U.S. missiles at Russia’s borders and hypersonic Russian missiles housed on small surface vessels or submarines in international waters off the shores of the United States, means that the warning time has been cut to five or ten minutes, which is to say, there is no longer a buffer against false alarms and automated launches. If the United States were to continue its escalation policy in Ukraine, aided and abetted by the British and the Germans, with their own newly announced plans for introducing Typhoon jets or TAURUS missiles into the war in Ukraine, then we would have hardly a chance of averting a shift by NATO or by Russia to tactical and then to strategic nuclear weapons, meaning the end of civilization on earth.
Enter Divine intervention.
CNN, EuroNews, the BBC: their broadcasts this morning were all about the vote yesterday in the U.S. House of Representatives to “vacate” the position of the Speaker, meaning the removal of Kevin McCarthy. Specialists on U.S. constitutional law have been given the microphone to explain what the duties and powers of the Speaker are, to tell us how this is unprecedented, the first time in U.S. history that a Speaker has been removed from office. Political analysts have spoken on air at great length on who were the eight who precipitated the vote that brought down the Speaker. They have been described as trouble makers, rabble rousers who want only to obstruct the working of the federal government. Some have taken this line of conduct back to the Tea Party rebels within the Republican Party, and to the later emergence of the most fervent Trump supporters who sought to overthrow the consensus of America’s ruling elites. There is a lot of truth in these characterizations, but they do not consider the positive side to the removal of the House leader and effective shutdown of the legislative branch of government. I will try to address that here.
The most positive element is that it all validates the “checks and balances” notion of governance that was a guiding principle of the nation’s founders. The whole country has been run under successive Democratic administrations as if there is no alternative, as if “checks and balances” were not applicable to those who are the heralds of progressive humanity, meaning themselves. All of those who have disagreed with the Democratic party positions on everything and anything are, in the apt words of candidate Hilary Clinton in 2016 “deplorables.” Well, yesterday the deplorables had their day in court and they won.
Why am I saying all of this in a newsletter that is dedicated to foreign policy issues? Because the net result of the removal of Mr. McCarthy yesterday is to halt for an indefinite time all substantive work to restore to the federal budget the $6 billion or so of the total $24 billion for 2024 that was deleted from the compromise budget bill that passed Congress this past weekend and was signed by the President to finance the working of the federal government for the coming 45 days.
I take “indefinite time” to be rather prolonged, given that the internecine war going on within the Republican party on Capitol Hill is fierce and uncompromising. This creates the real possibility that there will be no stratagem, no dirty trick that Biden and his fellow war criminals in power can turn to continue assistance to Ukraine. Absent this oxygen, the Ukrainian war effort will shut down rather swiftly. Europe will be aghast but is unable to fill in for the missing American contribution.
The irony of these developments is that the Ukrainian war may end for entirely arbitrary reasons within the U.S. power structure. All the efforts of Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer that brought to the attention of millions of youtube watchers the guilt of the West for this supposedly “unprovoked” war will have played no role in the denouement. Nor will one even be able to say that those in Congress who opposed further aid to Ukraine did so not because they are peace-niks but because they prefer to do battle with China. No, the collapse of support for Ukraine will be attributable to the true collapse of American political culture.
Pundits have spoken for more than a year about the risk of a civil war in the United States because all interest in the art of politics as the art of compromise and search for pragmatism evaporated long ago. The scandalous judicial persecution of Donald Trump to remove him from the electoral race in 2024 has been playing out for all the world to see. The scandalous, shall we say treasonous behavior of the sitting president when he served as vice president under Barack Obama is coming to public attention as the judicial process is applied to his son and collaborator in bribe-taking from the Chinese, Hunter. Many have asked how long this can continue without the system collapsing. Well, friends, it has just collapsed and I say that is a godsend in the literal sense of the word.
Source: https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/10/04/divine-intervention-and-the-end-of-the-war-in-ukraine/
A reader comment on “Further to ‘Divine Intervention” that merits wide exposure
October 6, 2023
One of the most gratifying aspects of publishing on a couple of internet platforms is the feedback I receive from readers, some of whom are clearly experts in fields germane to the topics about which I am writing. There are no universal geniuses. The reader comment posted on my substack.com site that I quote extensively below is clearly by someone with an in-depth knowledge of war materiel, tactics and strategy, all of which I do not possess. My own contribution is in another domain: reporting on what the Russians are presenting to their nation on state television, on major news tickers, and putting it into a decades-long context of my own knowledge of Russia, both book learned and experiential as a frequent visitor and past long-time resident working in Russia.
In that capacity, I add to what is quoted below the observation that the use of heavy bombs which I said was coming in a new stage of the Russian way of war in Ukraine has now been evidenced by images in latest news both on Russian and Western television. The introduction of heavy bombs has not been called out as such, but the video images of the latest destruction of a town in Kharkov province near Kupiansk and other scenes from the front taken yesterday show that the 1.5 ton bombs are already at work, with both the positive and negative aspects of such warfare. The negative is greater civilian casualties.
Reader comment:
| The FAB-1500 you mention is a standard aerial multipurpose bomb that has now been converted to a correctional (though not precision guided afaik) glide bomb, FAB-1500M-54. This was no small engineering feat. It had been initially designed with fins to counter rotation so it descends on nearly as vertical a line as possible. Modifications to glide it and also control it to a target makes it fearsome. This turns a rather cheap to produce item into a state of art weapon; an alternative to existing Russian (and American) specially designed analogues which are not cheap. The problem with offensive action is that nowadays movement can be quickly detected, more so if an amassed force, and very quickly in real time, precision fire directed, and destroyed. Innovations such as glide bombs provide a reasonably safe launch from outside of the known enemy air defense perimeter, then the glide path of the thing is controlled to hit an intended target. These are reasonably precise, not fully. The smaller 500 and 250’s are better at that. Used more as well. All of these are “multi purpose” bombs. Used to combine destructive radius, penetration and fragmentation, thus the multipurpose designation. These are used as anti personnel, on buildings, and armored equipment. Since the effective kill radius is about 200feet, and double that for its likely maiming potential, and a typical 20 ft deep cratering, it’s a battlefield weapon unless used specifically on a building target in an urban area. It’s going to create civilian carnage if used in any sort of multiples in the same zone. The really big bombs you referenced up to 9000kg (there’s a 5000 too) are again battlefield weapons, and also not precision guided. If used other scenario-wise, it’s a definite step away from the professed goal of limiting civilian casualties. I do not envision these being used. I’m not even sure they’ve been used since wwII. The fact of the matter is, if Russia wanted to destroy any particular bldg in kyiv, including Bankova tomorrow, it could. The game of warfare has changed, and since much of new innovations in weaponry and delivery systems are new, learning in the fly is happening. What we see of Russian strategy reflects well developed military strategy theories, but implementation of theory to effective “operational art” still a work in progress. However, with its experience in Syria coupled now to Ukraine, Russian theory, well known skill in forecasting future war motifs, and practical experience with modern systems, it makes Russia the most up to date and increasingly effective instrument of political will. It’s balance of strategy of destruction vs attrition (the blurring together of offensive and defensive activities) is what’s being witnessed everyday. The ability to strike anywhere beyond the line of contact to the farthest reaches of its enemies infrastructure and industry and command hq’s, is not indicative of mere attrition, and it’s well designed defensive echelons and fire zones allow it to destroy the enemy as it moves in the near rear of its lines. Together, it’s the most economical application of force, and safest. Preserving Russian personnel, equipment and biding time as it all the while revamps its force structure, it’s MIC capacity, and personnel under arms. I’d say this is a pretty interesting, if not amazing, accomplishment. All the western jive about a weak, corrupt or ill equipped military is nonsense. Western military analysts (not the popular media rent a generals) know what’s up, and it’s cause for concern, but managing the narrative is part of the modern game, so we still can read in The Sun about how Russia is nearly exhausted. To address the point about an impending Russian offensive misses the numerous such in the guise of “active defense”, as well as, the incredible offensive havoc conducted daily over the Ukrainian country. I wonder why put your personnel at risk, or your equipment, if what’s being done is working well. I’d say not until what fight Ukraine retains is clearly exhausted. Time is on Russia’s side, and it shows no inclination to buy on western provocations to escalate. |
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Emma Olive 