July 1, 2024
By Svetlana Ekimenko
Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally (RN) has topped the 1st round of French parliamentary elections, winning 33.4% of the votes on Sunday. The New Popular Front leftist coalition came in second, securing 27.99%, while President Emmanuel Macron’s center-right alliance Ensemble is in third place with 20.04%.
President Emmanuel Macron’s center-right alliance Ensemble has been “practically wiped out” by Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally (RN) in the first round of the snap elections to the National Assembly in France. That is how the leader of the French right-wing National Rally party’s parliamentary faction referred to the results of the first round of the parliamentary elections. After the second round of voting, the RN could win between 230 and 280 seats – a relative majority – in the 577-seat lower house, according to national TV calculations. It had but 88 seats in the outgoing parliament. Macron’s coalition is projected to lose over 160 seats, potentially winning only between 70 – 100 seats.
But there is still the second round of the voting to look forward to, on July 7.
So, here’s how the 2nd round of France’s parliamentary election will work.
Three major political blocs are competing for seats in the National Assembly: the right-wing National Rally, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the New Popular Front coalition.
According to the French multiparty system, to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly, a party or bloc needed to garner over 50% to be elected outright on Sunday – at least 289 seats out of 577. Voter turnout needs to be at least 25% in the first round. The first round eliminates all candidates who fail to win the support of 12.5% of locally registered voters.
World Right-Wing National Rally Tops 1st Round of French Parliamentary Elections, Macron’s Coalition Third
Who Goes into Round 2?
As legislators are elected by district, in constituencies where no one candidate won outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a second round. Also taking part in round 2 are any candidate with more than 12.5% of the total number of registered voters in that constituency.
What Political Maneuvering is Expected?
Around 300 constituencies could potentially be facing three-way run-offs, with polls indicating many voters favoring the RN party. Accordingly, it is no surprise that a long practiced “republican front” is going to be resorted to by the centre-right and centre-left politicians. In other words, a third-party candidate drops out of the race and urges voters to rally behind the second-placed candidate.
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has already stated that Macron’s centrist coalition will withdraw around 60 of its candidates to allow other candidates have a chance to defeat the RN.
“We have made a decision that concerns more than 60 constituencies. It implies the withdrawal of our candidates. Their possible third place would lead to the victory of a lawmaker from National Rally over a candidate from another party who shares the values of the republic, as we do,” stated Attal on Sunday.
Candidates through to the run-off have until Tuesday evening to decide whether to stand down.
Whoever gets the most votes in the second round wins the constituency seat.
What Are the Post-Round 2 Scenarios?
If another political party or alliance other than Macron’s centrist alliance gets a majority, the president will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority. What will happen, accordingly, is a power-sharing arrangement, dubbed a cohabitation. This would be set to last throughout the remainder of Emmanuel Macron’s mandate – until 2027.
Under cohabitation, the French government could implement policies that diverge from the president’s stance.
Incidentally, it is not at all a done deal that Jordan Bardella – the French politician who has been the president of the National Rally (RN) since 2022 – would become prime minister. Under the constitution it is Macron who decides who leads the next government.
Bardella himself has insisted that he will not become PM unless RN secures an absolute majority, saying: “I don’t want to be the president’s assistant.”
Meanwhile, RN campaign posters appear to suggest the likelihood of Bardella as prime minister.
In the history of France, the last such cohabitation (1997-2002) was under Jacques Chirac, with domestic policy issues effectively in the hands of the socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin, while the conservative French president dealt with matters of foreign and defense policy.
Irrespective of the outcome of the elections, Macron has said he will not resign as president.
World Crunch Time: Understanding France’s Snap Parliamentary Elections
Emma Olive 