January 26, 2018
By Ghassan Kadi
It seems that Erdogan has already made up his mind, but the speculations about what deals have been and haven’t been done seem muddied, to put it mildly.
In the Levant, the Kurds always lose in the end, and regardless of what alliances they make and with whom, they always end up getting stabbed in the back; or at least abandoned. But when they team up with parties like the USA, and even Israel, what else can they expect?
However, the Kurd’s obsession of having their statehood by any means, and the resistance they face and the unpreparedness of certain parties to work together to ensure that there will be no foreign intervention, they all have their adverse consequences. What we see happening in Syria’s north today is the direct outcome of this.
America had been looking for half an excuse to invade Syria for a very long time, and knowing that it wasn’t able to have a full-on presence that would allow it to carpet bomb the whole nation, it used the Kurdish excuse and the false pretext of creating a “security zone” in order to justify its presence on Syrian soil; against Syria’s wish.
But to do this, America needed allies on the ground, and instead of working together with its natural partner and NATO member Turkey (which happens to be a regional superpower) on common denominators, America’s inability to negotiate and give and take, even with its most ardent allies, repelled Turkey and America had to resort to an alliance with the YPG Kurds. What comes next is more sinister.
It is not clear what was Russia’s initial position on establishing any form of Kurdish autonomy in Syria. As a matter of fact, Syria’s FM Walid Mouallem hinted back in September 2017 that the Syrian Government was prepared to look into a limited Kurdish cultural autonomy (https://arabic.rt.com/middle_east/900959-وزير-الخارجية-السوري-لـ-rt-الإدارة-الذاتية-سوريا-وهذا-أمر-قابل-للتفاوض-والحوار/), but this did not go very far. And long before Mouallem’s remark, President Assad himself hinted back in 2012 that the efforts of the people of Ain Al Arab (Kobani in Kurdish) will not be forgotten. But of course, this does not mean he was hinting at some form of autonomy. Was the Syrian Government pressured to not explore every possible avenue for reconciliation with its Kurdish population? And if so, by whom and why? Surely not by Russia because, Russia had always been sympathetic and understanding of Kurdish fears and aspirations. Who else could have stood in the way of reaching some form of pre-emptive reconciliation between the Syrian Government and Syrian Kurds before events reached the dangerous climax they are at today? Definitely not Iran or Turkey.
Arguably, it can be said that the way the YPG went to bed with America has led to its abandonment by the Syrian Government and all other potential allies outside the American circle of influence, and this cannot be more obvious given the recent history of the YPG. In all honesty however, we must in hindsight ask whether it was possible to avoid this impasse or at least mitigate it. We don’t know. Either way, it is probably already too late to “reconcile” and President Assad himself has recently referred to those Kurds who are under America’s beck-and-call as “traitors”.
Ironically, an ardent opposition of having any form of Kurdish autonomy in Syria was, and continues to be, Turkey’s Erdogan. He is concerned about the snow-ball effect and the possibility of similar Turkish-Kurdish aspirations. And Turkey is a multi-ethnic nation with vulnerabilities that cannot be ignored in this crazy era of human history.
Erdogan had told his American “allies” time and time again that they cannot be strategic allies of Turkey if they want to endorse any form of a formal Kurdish entity; even one that is only nominally cultural. Yet, Obama’s USA did not listen any more than Trump’s. They dug in their heels and continued to intimidate in their presence in Syria not only Syria, but also Russia and most ironically, their ally Turkey.
Syria wants America out of Syria.
Russia wants America out of Syria.
Iran wants America out of Syria.
Turkey doesn’t really care if America is in or out of Syria, but Turkey definitely wants the YPG and any other Kurdish military forces disabled in order to put a stop to any possible Kurdish entity from materializing.
But now that the wolf (aka America) is in, who is going to kick it out before it huffs and puffs and blows the whole region in?
The Syrian Army cannot engage directly against American troops, let alone militia supported by America, without risking a major direct military escalation with America itself. As a matter of fact, America perhaps wishes for this to happen as this will justify a bigger presence.
But hang on, let’s not forget that Russian troops are on the ground in Syria, and the Russians and Americans have thus far succeeded in avoiding direct confrontation for decades. Such indirect interaction is something that both super powers are familiar with, and they know how to do it. But this of course means that Russia cannot directly be engaged in ousting American troops from Syria. On the flip-side, America cannot engage with Russia either in an attempt to, say, oust President Assad.
How about Iran then? Well, Iran is already under American (and Israeli) threats, even without engaging directly against American troops. Iran may choose to engage against America or be drawn into such an engagement, but to do this willingly in order to protect Syrians Kurds is an unlikely scenario.
In reality therefore, only Turkish troops can do the job without creating much international havoc of far-reaching devastation.
Does this mean that there is a tacit approval on behalf of the Syrian Government for the Turkish so-called “Olive Branch” operation? Not at all, and in fact, most unlikely. Is there then perhaps an agreement between Turkey on one hand with Russia and Iran on the other hand on this? Also highly unlikely. However, Erdogan knows well that only he can engage in fighting American cohorts in Syria, and he is doing it with or without any need for support, not even tacit support, from either Russia, Iran or Syria.
Now let’s not forget that Turkey is a NATO member and that it houses the Incirlik airbase. However, unlike back in 1955 when Turkey was desperate to join NATO in fear of the “Communist peril”, America and NATO now need Turkey much more than Turkey needs NATO. To Erdogan, if he had to choose between the potential risks of losing Turkey’s NATO membership as against having a Kurdish state south of his border, he would choose the former.
But to Erdogan, his stand against America is not only religiously and nationalistically based, it is also personal. Apart from his doctrinal fundamentalist and nationalist attributes, he regards America as the nation that hosts and protects his political enemy and rival Gulen; who ironically still enjoys a huge level of support within Turkey, despite all the clampdowns on his supporters after the July 2016 coup attempt.
Erdogan and Trump are now playing chicken with each other, each looking at his opponent to see who is going to back off first. Trump has no idea that Erdogan will not waver and that he will simply not allow a Kurdish state south of his border, even though it is not meant to be on Turkish territory. The truth of the matter is that America has never ever considered its allies as friends who may have common objectives with America, but also happen to have their own interests. America is used to dictating its terms and conditions on its allies without a second thought.
But Trump, like his predecessor before him, does not seem to realize that they have pushed Erdogan to the limit and that he is now taking America to task.
So apart from whether or not there are undisclosed deals between Syria, Turkey, Iran and Russia, the fact that they all agree that none of them wants any form of Kurdish autonomy, lifts Erdogan up to the level of the one and only “hero” who can deal with it as he is the only one who doesn’t give a damn about what happens between him and America. He even seems to be reveling in the attention he is receiving at home by challenging America, as this is bolstering his popularity and further enabling him to target Gulen and America who is held responsible for his political survival by giving him asylum.
But in doing all of this, and to follow up on the previous article (http://thesaker.is/erdogans-karmic-trap/ read the article below), Erdogan has clearly made his choice as to which side on the Syrian ground he is going to support.
Erdogan seems to be distancing himself from Al-Nusra Front, or is he? Well, on the surface at least, he is pushing the card of the allegedly least radical of all militarized Syrian opposition groups; the so-called “Free Syria Army” (FSA). The original FSA members back in 2011 were mainly defectors of the Syrian Army. Back then, they were the only military force on the ground before all the Jihadis and mercenaries came in. No one can really tell with certainty what percentage of those fighters today are of Syrian Army origin, but what is pertinent here is that Erdogan is not going into Afrin together with Al-Nusra Front fighters, but rather with FSA fighters.
To a Syrian patriot, there is no real difference between the FSA and Al-Nusra Front. However, on the books as it were, the FSA is not a fundamentalist Jihadist organization. And as Astana/Geneva/Sochi talks will resume at some stage, lifting the profile of the FSA at one minute to midnight might give the elusive so-called “moderate Syrian opposition” a last minute mouth-to-mouth resuscitation; courtesy of Erdogan. After all, if push comes to shove, the Al-Nusra fighters that Erdogan wishes to protect can always shave their beards and wear FSA uniforms.
It’s a “clever”, or rather conniving, move by Erdogan, because by supporting and resurrecting the FSA, not only is he distancing himself from Al-Nusra Front, but he is bringing back the “moderate Syrian opposition” to the forefront and potentially giving it a place in the final negotiation process, and this fact, may also be used by him as an un-severed link with his American “allies”, because if he wanted to watch his back just in case he needed America in the near future, he can always argue that he did not send his troops into Syria to support President Assad, but rather to support the opposition.
Whichever way events move on from here, Russian diplomacy will be given the ultimate challenge. The time for muscle power in the skies for Russian bombers is over, at least for a while.
https://thesaker.is/erdogan-has-made-his-choice/
Erdogan’s Karmic Trap
January 17, 2018
By Ghassan Kadi
The security zone America intends to establish in Syria is doomed to fail sooner or later. How can this assertion be made and what can it be based on? Well, two main things really; history and facts on the ground.
America’s seven-decade long post WWII intensive and consecutive military gambles have all failed, and without a single exception. And even though America has learnt a big lesson in Vietnam and went into Iraq more prepared; not only in terms of fire power, but also in terms of media control and manipulation of public opinion, it also failed there. And to think that it also learned from the mistakes of the USSR in Afghanistan and adopted more lethal and effective military tactics that should work, they also failed. So why should an alleged army of 30,000 odd Kurdish YPG fighters with ill-defined American support achieve what much bigger fighting forces couldn’t?
But not only is this army that America is trying to build and establish much less potent than former similar armies, but it is also surrounded by many more opponents.
So let’s get this right. In comparison to what happened in Iraq in 2003 when America invaded, it had over 150,000 troops, state-of-the-art military hardware, a huge fleet of multinational attack ships and huge array of fighter jets and bombers, a bottomless budget and no real Iraqi army nor any resistance in existence. Yet, in no time, an “insurgence” sprouted from nowhere turning life on Iraqi soil into hell for the armies of the coalition. In short, even though Saddam was toppled, the invasion failed abysmally in achieving its full objectives.
Now, with an army of a meagre 30,000 Kurdish troops supported by America, the odds of winning against a coalition of the Syrian Army plus its allies are much less likely, if not impossible.
Some may argue that Kurds are hardened fighters and that they know the terrain very well. Whilst this is true, we need to stop and look at Syria and its allies because they too, at least most of them, are not any less hardened and locally savvy.
And speaking of America’s support, there’s no telling as to what extent it will be; let alone for how long.
Historically again, America has turned its back many times on its allies in similar circumstances, and the Kurds specifically are not strangers to finding themselves on the receiving end of betrayal by many of their former allies; including the Americans.
The obvious allies of Syria are first and foremost Russia without doubt. Russia cannot afford to accept anything short of a sweeping victory of its operation in Syria. But the Russians are a different breed to their “Western partners” who impose their terms and conditions on the allies. The Russians know that they need to juggle other interests in order to make certain that their efforts succeed.
It was easier then for the Russians to round up Iran and Turkey together in confronting Daesh. This part of the Russian role didn’t need too much diplomacy. But now that the defeat of Daesh is a done deal, other once less important issues take centre stage and can tend to make the situation a bit sticky, to put it mildly.
Almost in every mention of Erdogan in all of my previous articles, I have reiterated that he is both an Islamist and a nationalist. He’s been getting away with both for a long time, but perhaps I had a premonition that soon enough, a time will come at which he won’t be able to wear both hats at the same time.
We must remember that Erdogan and Assad will probably never make up. Erdogan has caused so much devastation in Syria and the blood he spilt is still warm. Syrians are not ready or prepared to forgive him even if he pleads on his knees. With that said, Russian diplomacy has narrowed the gap between Turkish and Syrian interests during the war on Daesh phase.
As the opposing forces are poised to enter a new phase; albeit that of negotiations or fighting or both, the anti-American Empire side remains united in seeking total liberation of Syrian territory and the unconditional restoration of Syrian sovereignty. They all seek the withdrawal of the American presence in Syria and are united in regarding this presence as illegal, and it is. They are all against a Syrian federation and the establishment of a Kurdish state. But this is all about what they have in common.
Simply put, this is mainly where their interests diverge:
Firstly, Syria and Iran do not recognise the existence of the state of Israel, but Russia has good relations with Israel. All three parties remain united though, each knowing and accepting the position of the others. This ideological difference may surface once other more pressing matters are resolved, but at the moment, Russia, Syria and Iran agree to disagree on this.
Secondly, Turkey was prepared to sacrifice its former ideological and trade partner Daesh. This became easier as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) turned against its former member Qatar, and with Turkey siding with Qatar, it became easy for Erdogan to turn his back against the GCC-sponsored Daesh. But Erdogan is not prepared to sever ties with the Turkey-Qatar-sponsored Al-Nusra Front.
Erdogan still believes that he can hold on to the Al-Nusra Front; simply because he is an incurable Islamist.
What he cannot see is that his nationalist and Islamist agendas are finally at odds and that he will soon have to choose one or the other.
As the way out of the “War on Syria” became more complex for the original perpetrators, many former allies and foes had to make very costly and embarrassing decisions. Erdogan doesn’t seem to understand that had it not been for Russia and Russian diplomacy, his nose would’ve been rubbed in the dirt a long time ago.
However, time is closing in for Erdogan to choose. He should be counting his blessings and the fact that Russian diplomacy has given him a face-saver not only by accepting his apology for the downing of the Su-24 in Nov 2015, but also in including him and Turkey as a partner in the joint war on Daesh effort, and thereby absolving him from his former affiliations and business deals with it.
In theory, he should be agreeing to any reasonable resolution Russia seeks in Syria, but the incurable Islamist is simply unable to distance himself from the shackles of what comes with this tag.
So back to the diverging interests, it is true and realistic to say that thirdly and perhaps most importantly, the onus is on Russia to find a resolution that can be based on pertinent common interests of Syria, Iran and Turkey, and one that also serves Russian interests.
Erdogan needs to wise up to realise that he will soon have to choose between being a historic partner in a resolution that will be recorded in history as the first of its kind heralding the beginning of the end of the so-called “New World Order” or, alternatively choose to continue to be affiliated with a bunch of greasy bearded head choppers.
He needs to acknowledge that the peace and security of his area, including that of Turkey, is one that is regional and therefore more expansive than his narrow religious, and grossly sectarian, narratives and inclinations. He must accept that the Sunni approach has already been tried, and that it failed.
The time for Erdogan to wear two hats is coming to a close, if it hasn’t already. Nationalistic views do not match with Islamist views, and if Erdogan sees a fissure in his alliance with Russia and Iran in Syria, he ought to look inside his own head and see that his own ideologies are at war with themselves inside his very head.
Russian diplomacy continues to exercise patience with him, but his window of time is closing and closing fast.
As new lines keep getting drawn in the “War on Syria”, the only wildcard and stick in the mud is Turkey’s Erdogan. It’s a karmic trap that Erdogan had inadvertently set for himself. What is interesting here is that whether Erdogan is aware of this or not, his popularity as the Sunni hero has dropped dramatically in the Muslim street after he reconciled with President Putin. Many of his once great admirers referred to him as a traitor and that he has let them down. He cannot restore his lost popularity without making a 180 degree turn on Russia, and even if he does, he will find it very difficult to rally up an overwhelming Sunni sentiment, especially in the wake of the Saudi-Qatari crisis. If he had half a brain, in other words, he must acknowledge that he has nothing to gain by sticking to his support of Al-Nusra, but much to lose. But will he be able to rid himself of his fundamentalist Islamist ambitions and make rational decisions? Only time will tell.
Emma Olive 